Fall Weather Outlook: Prepare for Above-Average Temps Posted on October 8, 2026 Fall is here again! But instead of the crisp chill that marks the start of autumn, fall 2026 is expected to begin with above-average temperatures due to a host of factors. Here’s what to expect this fall, and why you start preparing for the latter part of the season. Warmer Than Normal Weather According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), both the west and east coasts will experience warmer than average temperatures for October. The above-average temperatures will also extend to much of the country’s interior and central plains, with only a handful of states getting equal chances of either warmer or cooler temperatures. October temperature forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration States with the highest chances of above-average temperatures Alabama Alaska Arkansas California Louisiana Mississippi Georgia Florida The only states with equal chances of warmer or cooler temperatures Colorado Idaho Montana Utah Wyoming Above-Average Chances of Precipitation NOAA likewise expects either equal or above average precipitation for the entire continental US. Data from the agency shows that thirteen states will likely have above average precipitation: “Likely above” the October average: Alaska Arizona Colorado Louisiana New Mexico Texas “Leaning above” the October average: Alabama California Colorado Iowa Mississippi Nebraska New Mexico Oklahoma Utah Based on the agency’s forecast, not a single state is looking at below average precipitation for October. Late Snowfall Accuweather predicts that the first snowfall of the year will likely be confined to the Rockies and elevated regions: Colorado Idaho Montana Utah Wyoming However, historical data from NOAA indicates that the El Nino phenomenon may result in much higher than typical snowfall later in the season. Factors Affecting Fall Weather The Super El Niño is the main driver behind the above-average temperatures and wetter precipitation. NOAA estimates there is a more than 90% chance of the El Nino becoming a very strong event during fall and winter this year, and a 75% chance it would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events since 1950, when the agency first started keeping records. This periodic warming of water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean is the reason for the higher than normal temperatures, as the warm air makes its way across the continental US. Likewise, the warm air results in higher humidity, which manifests as higher precipitation. How to Prepare The mild start of autumn gives you more time to prepare for the cold season ahead. Make sure your home is autumn-proof with our handy fall checklist that covers everything from roof and gutter cleaning to HVAC prep. Likewise, it gives you a headstart on preparing your fireplace for its seasonal workload, whether it’s traditional wood, gas or electric. Cleaning the fireplace is an essential fall activity that should be done well in advance of the cold season. This preparation is crucial because NOAA and other meteorological agencies show that the coming winter is likely to be colder and harsher due to the Super El Nino, particularly for West and East coasts, as well as the Southern states. For more fall preparation tips and advice, subscribe to our newsletter and check out our homeowner’s guides. Mickey Luongo Mickey is the resident heating and air conditioning expert with over 15 years of experience in the industry.
