Hot in Here: Summer 2026 Weather Outlook, and How to Prepare Posted on June 10, 2026 Summer 2026 is shaping up to be hotter than average. Weather agencies forecast a season of dangerous heat, rising humidity, and elevated risks across much of the US, particularly across the South and Southwest, the Gulf Coast, and parts of the West. Here’s the weather forecast for summer, and what you can do to prepare. Above-average Temperatures The latest outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center shows increased probabilities for above-normal temperatures across much of the continental United States. NOAA’s official seasonal outlooks indicate that many regions are likely to experience persistent heat throughout June to August. There’s also the effect of the developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a high risk that El Niño will develop during the mid-to-late parts of the year, influencing weather patterns around the globe, including the US. Historically, El Niño years often contribute to warmer global temperatures and can intensify heat events in many parts of North America. You can see our previous coverage of the potential “Super El Niño” here. The WMO has also warned that the planet will likely experience near-record global temperatures between 2026 and 2030, with the next several years potentially exceeding previous heat records. Which States Could Experience the Most Heat? The latest forecast from NOAA indicates above-average temperatures for much of the continental US, with the exception of the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. Southern US The South is expected to see some of the most persistent heat this summer. Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida could experience extended stretches of high temperatures combined with oppressive humidity. Heat index values (the “feels like” temperature) may regularly exceed 100°F in some areas. Southwest and Desert Regions Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, and inland California are once again at risk for extreme heat events. Cities already accustomed to hot summers could experience longer-lasting heat waves, as well as elevated wildfire risk. Midwest and Plains Some long-range models suggest portions of the Midwest may see more variability because of evolving El Niño conditions, but can expect above-normal temperatures. Humidity levels may also climb significantly across the Plains and central US. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic For Northeast states, the start of summer will see average temperatures, before heat is expected to intensify later in the season. However, humidity and rainfall patterns could still create uncomfortable indoor conditions, especially in older homes without central air conditioning. Humidity Could Become a Bigger Problem Extreme heat is only part of the issue. Humidity can make indoors feel significantly hotter, while also creating indoor air quality concerns. Excess humidity at home can cause: Mold growth Musty odors Dust mites Condensation formation Wood damage Increased strain on HVAC systems According to the US Environmental Protection Agency, the ideal indoor relative humidity is between 30% and 50%, and should be kept below 60% whenever possible to reduce mold issues and health and safety problems. Unfortunately, summer humidity can easily push indoor moisture levels well beyond that range. This is especially true for basements and crawl spaces, poorly ventilated homes, and those located near coastal regions. How to Prepare for Summer 2026 Preparation now can help homeowners stay cooler, healthier, and more energy efficient before the heat arrives. ✔ Get Your AC Summer-Ready Preventive maintenance is one of the smartest ways to avoid midsummer breakdowns. Before temperatures spike, homeowners should: Replace air filters Clean condenser coils Test the thermostat Clear the outdoor compressor of debris and obstructions Schedule professional maintenance if needed Neglecting PM,s for your air conditioning can increase the risk of breakdowns during prolonged heat waves, just when it’s needed the most. See our guide How to Maintain your AC in Summer. ✔ Improve Ventilation Besides air conditioning, proper airflow is critical during extreme heat. Poor ventilation combined with excess humidity can worsen: Allergies Asthma symptoms Respiratory irritation Mold exposure The EPA recommends keeping indoor environments clean, dry, and properly ventilated to reduce indoor air pollutants and moisture-related problems. Some areas of the house produce heat and moisture more than others. These include bathrooms, the kitchen, basement, and laundry areas. Others are liable to trap heat and humidity because of their enclosed nature, like the attic, garage, and crawl spaces. Exhaust fans and whole-home ventilation systems greatly help reduce indoor heat buildup while improving air quality. ✔ Use a Dehumidifier In humid climates, air conditioning alone may not adequately control indoor moisture. High humidity can actually take a toll on your AC, forcing it to work harder and increase already-high utility costs. Showers and kitchens produce the most moisture, but basements, crawl spaces, and laundry rooms are also vulnerable to excess humidity during summer. A dedicated dehumidifier can dramatically improve comfort while helping maintain EPA-recommended humidity levels for your home. Whole-home and portable dehumidifiers can help: Prevent mold growth Improve comfort Protect furniture and flooring Reduce musty odors Take the strain off your HVAC systems Improve indoor air quality Check out our extensive guide to dehumidifiers. We offer both residential and commercial-grade dehumidifiers designed for basements, whole-home applications, crawl spaces, and high-humidity environments. ✔ Upgrade to a More Efficient AC If your AC system is older, inefficient, or struggling to cool your home evenly, the hotter-than-average summer expected this season may push it beyond its limits. Modern high-efficiency air conditioners and mini split systems offer several major advantages. These include: Better energy efficiency, lowering your monthly bills Quieter performance Inverter technology, for higher efficiency, lower noise, and faster cooling Better humidity control New refrigerants that are less toxic and more eco-friendly Improved temperature consistency Check out our list of the most energy efficient AC units to help you get the most cooling for your buck. ✔ Prepare for Power Outages Even though NOAA expects a potentially below-normal Atlantic hurricane season because of El Niño conditions, experts stress that it only takes one storm to cause major disruptions. Summer storms, heat waves, and grid strain all increase the risk of power outages. Get your home blackout-ready with this checklist: Backup generator and fuel Battery-powered fans to keep the heat at bay Power banks for gadgets and personal electronics Surge protection, in case of thunderstorms Get Ready to Face the Heat Summer 2026 could bring intense heat, elevated humidity, and increased strain on households across America, with warmer than normal conditions for much of the country, compounded by developing El Niño patterns. Preparation is key to staying safe and comfortable. With this guide, you can get your AC and ventilation ready, keep humidity levels at bay, and prep your home for potential power outages and weather extremes. Mickey Luongo Mickey is the resident heating and air conditioning expert with over 15 years of experience in the industry.
